
Passkey Phishing: Can Passkeys Really Be Phished?
September 26, 2026A single compromised SAML assertion rewrote the security perimeter for SolarWinds’ downstream victims in 2020—granting attackers persistent, undetected access to cloud environments for months. The attack didn’t break encryption or brute-force credentials. It abused trust. That distinction matters enormously, because identity federation is built entirely on the premise that one system can vouch for a user to another system, and when that chain of trust is manipulated, the consequences cascade silently across every connected service.
Identity federation attacks are not a niche concern for large enterprises. As organizations accelerate adoption of cloud services, SaaS platforms, and cross-organizational partnerships, federated identity protocols—SAML, OAuth 2.0, OpenID Connect (OIDC), and WS-Federation—have become the connective tissue of modern authentication infrastructure. Attacking that tissue doesn’t require brute force. It requires precision, patience, and a deep understanding of how trust assertions propagate across systems. Security teams that treat federation as a solved problem are sitting on a structural vulnerability they may not discover until an incident response team points it out to them.
Understanding Identity Federation: The Architecture of Trust
Identity federation allows users to authenticate once with an Identity Provider (IdP) and access resources across multiple Service Providers (SPs) without re-entering credentials. The IdP issues a cryptographically signed token—a SAML assertion, JWT, or similar artifact—that the SP accepts as proof of identity. When this mechanism functions correctly, it dramatically reduces credential sprawl and improves user experience. When it’s compromised, it creates a master key that opens every door in the federation ecosystem simultaneously.
How the Trust Chain Works—and Where It Breaks
The fundamental vulnerability in any federated identity system is that SPs trust the IdP implicitly. If an attacker can impersonate the IdP, forge its tokens, or subvert its signing process, they bypass authentication entirely. This is not a flaw in the cryptographic standards themselves—SAML and OAuth 2.0 are mathematically sound when properly implemented. The failures consistently occur at the implementation layer: misconfigured SP validation rules, weak certificate management, insecure token storage, and overly permissive trust relationships.
According to the 2025 Verizon Data Breach Investigations Report, credential and authentication abuse was involved in over 44% of confirmed data breaches, with federated token manipulation representing a growing subset of that category. The shift toward cloud-native architectures has amplified this attack surface significantly.
Primary Attack Vectors Against Federated Identity Systems
Security analysts must understand the specific technical mechanisms adversaries exploit before they can build effective defenses. Identity federation attacks cluster into several distinct categories, each requiring different mitigation strategies.
SAML Assertion Forgery and Golden SAML Attacks
The Golden SAML technique, documented extensively following the SolarWinds supply chain attack, allows adversaries who have compromised an on-premises Active Directory Federation Services (ADFS) server to extract the token-signing certificate’s private key. With that key, they can forge SAML assertions for any user in the organization—including accounts that don’t exist in the source directory—and authenticate to any federated service: Microsoft 365, AWS, Salesforce, or any SAML-enabled SaaS platform.
What makes Golden SAML particularly dangerous is persistence without accounts. Defenders who reset passwords, disable accounts, or even revoke MFA enrollments cannot invalidate a forged SAML token if the signing certificate remains unchanged. The attackers discovered in the SolarWinds investigation had maintained this access pattern for over nine months before detection. Remediation required rotating ADFS signing certificates—a process that creates significant operational disruption and is often delayed precisely because of that complexity.
OAuth Token Theft and Authorization Code Interception
OAuth 2.0 attacks exploit the authorization flow’s reliance on redirect URIs and authorization codes. Open redirect vulnerabilities in legitimate applications can be chained to redirect authorization codes to attacker-controlled endpoints. Similarly, authorization code interception attacks targeting native applications without PKCE (Proof Key for Code Exchange) enforcement allow adversaries to capture codes in transit and exchange them for access tokens.
The 2023 Storm-0558 campaign against Microsoft demonstrated a sophisticated variant: attackers obtained a Microsoft account consumer signing key and used it to forge authentication tokens for enterprise tenants. This attack exploited a validation gap where certain Azure APIs accepted tokens signed by consumer keys for enterprise accounts—a trust boundary misconfiguration that affected dozens of organizations including U.S. government agencies.
Federated Identity in Cross-Organizational and Supply Chain Contexts
The attack surface expands dramatically when federation extends beyond a single organization’s perimeter. Business-to-business (B2B) federation, contractor access portals, and managed service provider (MSP) relationships create trust chains that span multiple security domains, each with its own maturity level and threat posture.
MSP and Third-Party Federation Risks
When an organization federates identity with a managed service provider, it is effectively extending implicit trust to that provider’s IdP configuration, certificate management practices, and administrative controls. If the MSP’s ADFS or Azure AD tenant is compromised, every client organization within that federation relationship becomes an immediate target. The 2021 Kaseya VSA attack illustrated this principle at scale—though primarily a software supply chain event, it demonstrated how trust relationships with service providers create exponential blast radius.
A 2024 analysis by CrowdStrike’s threat intelligence unit found that attacks targeting MSP identity infrastructure had increased 312% year-over-year, with adversary groups specifically seeking federated trust relationships as lateral movement pathways into downstream clients.
Cross-Tenant Trust Exploitation in Cloud Environments
Cloud platforms like Azure, AWS, and Google Cloud enable cross-tenant resource sharing through federation mechanisms. Misconfigured external identity providers, overly broad cross-tenant access policies, or improperly scoped service principal permissions can allow an attacker who has compromised a low-value federated identity in one tenant to pivot into a high-value environment. Security teams frequently underestimate the connectivity between their production cloud tenant and development or partner tenants linked through federation for convenience.
Detection Strategies for Federated Identity Attacks
Detecting federated identity attacks is genuinely difficult. By design, a properly forged token looks identical to a legitimate one. SPs don’t re-validate the token against the IdP for every request—they validate the cryptographic signature, which is valid. Effective detection therefore relies on behavioral analytics, anomaly detection, and instrumentation at both the IdP and SP layers.
Key Detection Signals and Log Sources
Security Operations Centers must instrument the following sources and correlate signals across them:
- ADFS and Azure AD sign-in logs: Monitor for authentication events originating from unusual IP addresses, geographic locations inconsistent with user behavior, or user agents that don’t match historical patterns.
- Service provider access logs: Correlate SaaS application access events against IdP authentication events. A session appearing in a SaaS application without a corresponding IdP authentication record is a critical anomaly.
- Token lifetime anomalies: Forged tokens are sometimes issued with extended validity windows. Alert on tokens with lifetimes significantly exceeding organizational policy.
- ADFS token-signing certificate access: Any process accessing the private key material for ADFS signing certificates—outside of expected certificate renewal workflows—should trigger immediate investigation.
- Impossible travel and concurrent sessions: A user authenticated through a federated session appearing simultaneously from geographically disparate locations indicates potential token reuse or theft.
Microsoft’s Sentinel, Splunk’s UBA module, and specialized ITDR (Identity Threat Detection and Response) platforms from vendors like Semperis, Vectra, and CrowdStrike Identity now offer purpose-built detection logic for Golden SAML and related techniques. The 2025 Gartner Identity Security Market Guide classified ITDR as a mandatory capability for enterprise security architectures—a significant shift from its “emerging” classification just two years prior.
Behavioral Baselines and UEBA Integration
Static rule-based detection is insufficient against sophisticated federation attacks. User and Entity Behavior Analytics (UEBA) establishes behavioral baselines for federated authentication patterns—time of access, resource types accessed, session duration, and API call sequences. Deviations from these baselines, particularly in high-privilege accounts, generate risk scores that prioritize investigation without overwhelming analysts with false positives.
Defense-in-Depth: Hardening Federated Identity Infrastructure
Prevention is structurally more efficient than detection when it comes to federated identity attacks. Several well-documented hardening measures significantly reduce the attack surface, though their implementation requires coordination between identity platform administrators, cloud architects, and application owners.
ADFS and Token-Signing Certificate Hardening
The primary control for Golden SAML prevention is protecting the ADFS token-signing certificate’s private key from extraction. This requires:
- Hardware Security Module (HSM) storage for ADFS signing keys, making private key extraction computationally infeasible even with administrative access to the ADFS server.
- Tiered administrative access for ADFS infrastructure, ensuring ADFS servers are managed only from Privileged Access Workstations (PAWs) and that ADFS administrators do not share accounts with general IT staff.
- Regular certificate rotation with defined procedures to minimize operational disruption—ensuring that if a key is suspected of compromise, rotation can be executed rapidly.
- Migration to Azure AD (Entra ID) cloud authentication where feasible, reducing reliance on on-premises ADFS infrastructure that represents a high-value, often under-monitored target.
OAuth and OIDC Hardening Practices
For OAuth 2.0 and OIDC implementations, the following controls are non-negotiable in a mature security program:
- Enforce PKCE for all public clients and native applications, eliminating authorization code interception as a viable attack vector.
- Strict redirect URI validation: Reject wildcard redirect URIs and validate exact-match URIs at the authorization server. A 2024 security audit of 500 enterprise OAuth implementations by Bishop Fox found that 38% permitted overly broad redirect URI patterns.
- Token binding and sender-constrained tokens: Implementing DPoP (Demonstrating Proof of Possession) tokens cryptographically binds access tokens to the client’s key pair, rendering stolen tokens useless without the corresponding private key.
- Minimize token lifetimes: Short-lived access tokens (15 minutes or less) limit the window of exploitation for stolen tokens. Pair with refresh token rotation to maintain usability.
- Continuous Access Evaluation Protocol (CAEP): Implement CAEP to allow SPs to receive real-time signals from IdPs when security events occur—enabling session revocation without relying on token expiration alone.
Governance and Compliance Dimensions of Federation Security
Identity federation is not solely a technical challenge. CISO and compliance teams must address federated identity within their risk management frameworks, vendor assessment processes, and regulatory compliance programs. NIST SP 800-63C (Digital Identity Guidelines: Federation and Assertions) provides the authoritative technical framework for federal contexts, but its principles apply universally.
Third-Party Federation Risk Assessment
Every federated trust relationship represents a risk acceptance decision that should be documented, scoped, and periodically reviewed. Organizations should maintain a Federation Trust Registry—a formal inventory of every IdP trusted by their SPs and every SP trusting their IdP—with associated risk ratings, data classification implications, and review cadences.
Vendor security questionnaires for federated partners should include: certificate management practices, MFA enforcement on IdP administrative accounts, incident response procedures specific to token signing key compromise, and logging retention for federation-related events. The EU’s NIS2 Directive, which came into full enforcement in October 2024, explicitly requires supply chain security assessments that encompass digital trust relationships—making this governance activity a regulatory obligation for organizations operating in or with European markets.
Incident Response Planning for Federation Compromise
Organizations must pre-plan for the specific scenario of ADFS signing certificate compromise or IdP administrative account takeover. A federation compromise incident response playbook should include:
- Immediate steps to rotate token-signing certificates and communicate changes to all federated SPs
- Process for identifying potentially forged sessions active at the time of discovery across all federated services
- Coordination procedures with federated partners who may also be affected
- Legal and regulatory notification timelines if federated data exposure is confirmed
Without a pre-established playbook, the operational complexity of a federation compromise causes response teams to hesitate on critical actions—precisely the delay that allows adversaries to achieve deeper persistence.
Key Takeaways
- Trust chains are attack surfaces: Every federated trust relationship extends your attack surface to the security posture of the trusted party. Treat federation agreements as risk acceptance decisions requiring formal documentation and periodic review.
- Golden SAML remains a critical threat: ADFS token-signing certificate protection via HSM storage and tiered administrative access is essential for any organization running on-premises federation infrastructure—not an optional hardening measure.
- Detection requires behavioral analytics: Cryptographically valid forged tokens are invisible to signature-based detection. UEBA and ITDR platforms that establish behavioral baselines for federated authentication are necessary components of a mature detection strategy.
- OAuth implementations frequently ship misconfigured: PKCE enforcement, strict redirect URI validation, and short token lifetimes are fundamental controls that remain absent in a significant proportion of enterprise OAuth deployments.
- Incident response must account for federation-specific scenarios: A compromised IdP signing key requires a coordinated, multi-system response that is qualitatively different from a standard credential compromise. Pre-planned playbooks reduce dangerous response hesitation.
Conclusion: Rethinking Trust as a Security Asset
Identity federation attacks succeed not because cryptographic standards are weak, but because organizations treat trust as a static configuration rather than a dynamic risk. The token-signing certificate sitting on an unmonitored ADFS server, the OAuth implementation that skipped PKCE because a developer found it inconvenient, the federated MSP relationship that was never formally risk-assessed—these are the real vulnerabilities that adversaries exploit with precision while defenders focus on perimeter defenses.
The organizations that successfully defend against federation attacks share a common characteristic: they have made identity infrastructure a first-class security concern, not an operational utility managed by IT with occasional security oversight. That means ITDR investment, formal federation trust registries, HSM-protected signing keys, and practiced incident response playbooks.
Start this week by auditing your Federation Trust Registry. Enumerate every IdP your organization trusts and every SP that trusts your IdP. For each relationship, document the data classification of accessible resources, the last date of security assessment, and whether the federated partner enforces MFA on IdP administrative accounts. If that inventory doesn’t exist, you are operating blind in one of the highest-impact threat landscapes in enterprise security. Build it, risk-rate it, and schedule quarterly reviews. The adversaries targeting your federation infrastructure are operating with more information about your trust relationships than your own security team has—close that gap now.
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